Distinguishing student profiles associated with success in secondary-to-tertiary transitions
2.00-2.30pm
Felicity Moser, Dr Rowena Long, Prof Doune Macdonald (presenting authors), Prof Jason M. Lodge, Sarah Greco, Liz Woolcock, Tianyi Ma, The University of Queensland
Kimberley Anderson and Kate Shepherd, James Cook University
Secondary schools invest considerable resources to support students’ transition to university, yet they often receive limited feedback on the effectiveness of these efforts. Concomitantly, challenges related to student engagement and a lack of belonging in tertiary settings contribute to high attrition rates, resulting in significant personal and institutional costs. This research aims to provide evidence-informed insights into the transition experiences of first-year university students, focusing on self-regulation, engagement and sense of belonging, to better inform both secondary and tertiary education sectors. To achieve this, we conducted a latent profile analysis of survey responses from 694 first-year university students, examining key indicators of transition success, including self-regulated learning, program fit and sense of belonging. Follow-up interviews with 67 participants provided qualitative depth, while demographic data were analysed to understand the distribution of student profiles across different backgrounds and regions. While this study did not directly address student well-being, data indicate that students who effectively regulate their effort and avoid negative emotional responses to study tend to perform better in both secondary and tertiary contexts. Self-regulation theory provided a valuable framework for interpreting these patterns. Five distinct student profiles emerged, each reflecting varying levels of self-regulation, engagement, and belonging. Students with strong self-regulation and alignment with their program reported a higher sense of belonging and were more likely to thrive. In contrast, students lacking these attributes were more vulnerable to disengagement and non-progression. Demographic factors such as school region and socio-economic background were also investigated to determine if these influenced the likelihood of students being in particular profiles. These findings offer a nuanced understanding of the secondary-to-tertiary transition and underscore the importance of fostering engagement and belonging to support student success. By identifying at-risk profiles, schools and universities can implement targeted strategies to strengthen student connections and improve progression outcomes.